Middle East Experience

As Libya's United Nations-backed government reclaimed parts of the capital today, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo discussed an end to the fighting with the embattled prime minister.
Source: Al Monitor
Full Article: Intel: Pompeo warns against Libya weapons flows in PM call

The raid comes amid a string of SDF operations against suspected IS members over the past week.
Source: Al Monitor
Full Article: Two Islamic State leaders killed in joint coalition-SDF raid in Syria

The Government of National Accord says it captured a string of towns from military strongman Khalifa Hifter this week.
Source: Al Monitor
Full Article: Libya's GNA takes back more of southern Tripoli from Hifter

The politics of humanitarian corridors; Hayat Tahrir al-Sham tries a shakedown in Idlib; Ben Caspit to interview former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on Al-Monitor podcast.
Source: Al Monitor
Full Article: US may try to raise the stakes for Russia in Syria

Iraqi officials wearing face masks and practicing social distancing visited Saudi Arabia this week, highlighting the new normal for state officials amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.Images released by the official Saudi Press Agency (SPA) via its SPAregions Twitter account showed an Iraqi delegation to the Kingdom meeting with Saudi Arabian officials.he Iraqi delegation was led by Deputy Prime Minister Dr. Ali Allawi, who is also the Acting Minister of Finance and Oil. Allawi and his delegation were met by Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed bin Abdullah al-Jadaan and Acting Minister of Media Majid bin Abdullah al-Qasabi.Iraq’s Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Dr. Qahtan Taha Khalaf and a representative of the royal protocol were also present at the talks.For all the latest headlines follow our Google News channel online or via the app.While Allawi’s visit is not particularly unusual given the longstanding relations between Saudi Arabia and Iraq, the images of the visit show how coronavirus regulations are being applied even at the level of state visits.The delegates can be seen entering the majlis wearing face masks as a mask-wearing soldier salutes them. They then pose for a photograph in chairs arranged with suitable distance between them in line with social distancing rules being recommended by governments across the world.Read more:Tawakkol Karman attacks Khashoggi’s son for pardoning killers from death penaltyG20 virtual summit on coronavirus led by Saudi King Salman convenesCoronavirus: Bahrain traffic drone enforces police rules in multiple languagesSince the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, governments have adapted to integrate technology into foreign policy meetings to avoid the risk of human-to-human transmission and unnecessary travel.The G20, chaired by Saudi Arabia, has held a series of virtual meetings. Images of world leaders talking to each other from their office via Zoom have now become increasingly common.Following the success of the G20 meetings, Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz has recently chaired a series of Saudi cabinet meetings.In the neighboring UAE, government officials have used virtual meetings to coordinate their COVID-19 response. On Friday, Sheikh Mansoor Bin Mohammed charied a meeting of Dubai’s Supreme Committee of Crisis and Disaster Management in which he praised the emirate’s proactive response to the pandemic.
Source: Al Arabiya
Full Article: Coronavirus: Iraqi officials visit Saudi Arabia in masks, highlighting COVID-19 norms

Oman reported 463 new cases of coronavirus on Saturday, bringing the total to 7,527.The death toll remains at 34.The ministry added that 1,848 people had recovered from the virus.Oman has recorded 424 new coronavirus cases, bringing the total number in the sultanate to 6,794, according to a statement from the Ministry of Health on Friday.Oman continues steady projectionThe day before, the ministry announced one new death, bringing the total to 32.The person was a 70-year-old Omani citizen, according to a statement from Oman's Ministry of Health issued via Twitter.On the same day, Oman recorded 424 new coronavirus cases and three new deaths, bringing the total number of confirmed cases in the country to 6,370.The three deaths were expats who had arrived at health facilities too late, the ministry said, adding that they may have hesitated to reach out to medical authorities out of fear or other reasons.Developing.
Source: Al Arabiya
Full Article: Coronavirus: Oman reports 463 new cases, total now 7,527

Iran on Saturday moved to open businesses, religious and cultural sites as it eases restrictions imposed to contain the coronavirus pandemic. Museums and historical sites are to reopen on Sunday to coincide with the Eid al-Fitr elebrations that end the Muslim holy fasting month of Ramadan, President Hassan Rouhani said on state television. Holy shrines - some of which became focal points of the coronavirus epidemic in Iran - will reopen Monday.Read more:Coronavirus: Iran urges against Eid travel as COVID-19 cases surge Coronavirus: Iran says its ‘curbing virus’ despite reporting over 2,000 new casesZarif tweets anti-Israel poster, crops out image of Soleimani plastered on al-AqsaRouhani announces openingRouhani had said last week that the shrines would open for three hours in the morning and three hours in the afternoon. Some areas of the shrines such as narrow corridors will stay shut. All workers in the country will return to work next Saturday. “We can say we have passed the three stages regarding the coronavirus,” Rouhani said.For more coronavirus news, visit our dedicated page. The fourth phase is containment in 10 of Iran’s 31 provinces, where the situation is better and screening will intensify while infected patients will be separated from the rest of the population. The president said last week that restaurants would reopen after Ramadan and sports activities would resume without spectators. Universities, but not medical schools, will reopen on June 6. Rouhani said on Saturday that 88 percent of the fatalities from COVID-19 in Iran were victims with underlying illnesses. According to health ministry figures, more than 7,000 have so far died from the pandemic in Iran and more than 130,000 have been infected.Opinion: Iran’s coronavirus strategy: Neglect its people, revive its proxies
Source: Al Arabiya
Full Article: Coronavirus: Iran begins opening businesses, religious sites for Eid al-Fitr

Both US presidential candidates, Donald Trump and Joe Biden, have declared their intentions to reach an agreement with Tehran on its nuclear program. In his 2018 speech withdrawing the US from the JCPOA, Trump said, “The fact is, they are going to want to make a new and lasting deal, one that benefits all of Iran and the Iranian people. When they do, I am ready, willing, and able.” His challenger from the Democratic Party noted, “If Iran moves back into compliance with its nuclear obligations, I would re-enter the JCPOA as a starting point to work alongside our allies in Europe and other world powers to extend the deal’s nuclear constraints.” While these scenarios may technically be within the realm of possibility, recent developments in both the US and Iran make them highly unlikely.The working assumptions underpinning these plans is that Iran will return to the negotiating table with the US. President Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy, which was implemented after the US withdrawal from the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal, is based on the premise that by squeezing Iran economically more than President Obama did will enable Trump to reach a more stringent and comprehensive agreement with the Iranians. In contrast, Biden appears to believe that by shifting from “America first” to a more multilateral approach in coordination with allies, as well as defusing the crisis and then engaging in talks with Iran, his administration will be able to save the JCPOA from collapse and build on it with follow-on agreements.It is almost certain that no negotiations will take place before the 2020 US presidential elections, as both Iran and the US will wait to recalibrate their approaches based on the electoral results. Yet, even after the elections – regardless of who wins – it is possible that Iran will not seek to enter into another agreement with the US. While one could point to the 2012-2015 negotiations as proof that Iran is willing to take a more pragmatic rather than hardline approach on its nuclear program, to assume that the conditions that facilitated the JCPOA agreement exist today would be to ignore significant developments that have since taken place.In 2012, Iran was indeed forced to make a strategic policy shift and agreed to negotiate. Economic sanctions certainly played a significant role in Iran’s decision, but the change of its policy cannot be explained merely by economic considerations. The election of Hassan Rouhani as president in the summer of 2013 created an opportunity for a change of direction in Iran’s policy and made it possible to speed up the talks between Iranian and American representatives that had begun months earlier. At the same time, Iran’s significant progress in the nuclear realm provided Tehran with the ability to temporarily freeze some elements without giving up its military nuclear breakout option, which is perceived by Supreme Leader Khamenei as a vital guarantee of regime survival.The current state of the Iranian political system, which has further radicalized over the last two years, does not provide favorable conditions for renewing negotiations and reaching a new deal. In the recent parliamentary elections held in February 2020, the hardliners succeeded in regaining full control of the Iranian parliament and the coronavirus pandemic has provided the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps with an opportunity to further increase its involvement in state affairs while exploiting the weakness of Rouhani’s government.In terms of foreign policy, over the past year Iran has implemented a policy of “maximum resistance” in response to the US maximum pressure policy. Today, Khamenei is well aware of the economic grievances of his countrymen, but still adheres to his position that the solution to the economic crisis exacerbated by sanctions lies in a “resistance economy.” This means reducing Iran’s dependence on foreigners and relying instead on domestic production. For Khamenei, the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal merely confirmed his paranoid, radical anti-US worldview. In Khamenei’s view, the US should not be trusted and was using the nuclear issue as an excuse to pressure, isolate, and weaken Iran to set the stage for the ultimate US strategic goal: regime change.Nearly a decade after Khamenei reluctantly agreed to allow talks with “The Great Satan,” it is unlikely he will be convinced to do so again. At the age of 81, approaching the end of his rule, Khamenei seems preoccupied with his legacy no less than with his country’s current problems. He does not appear willing to enter the history books as the leader who led his country to further concessions, especially after the diplomatic approach he approved in the past did not yield the desired results.But even if it were possible for Tehran and Washington to reach an agreement, it can either be credible or long-term – but not both. Deals based on executive agreement, like the JCPOA, have already proved vulnerable to the shift in foreign policy accompanying a US presidential transition. Similarly, even if a future “JCPOA 2.0” is enshrined as a treaty by the US Senate, it is conceivable that the next president could withdraw (as was done with the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia). The weakness of such foreign policy accords has become especially glaring in recent decades, as each successive president seems intent on reversing the direction of their predecessor.It is worth noting that the US “maximum pressure” campaign has highlighted that Washington has more economic leverage over Iran than was initially anticipated, even when it is acting unilaterally. That may provide some incentive for Iran to make an agreement, but that revelation alone is unlikely to be the decisive factor in Iranian decision-making.Though it is uncertain whether a new nuclear deal will prove to be within reach, whoever the next US president is may not have a better, realistic alternative. US efforts to reach a new agreement should be grounded in the following three assumptions: 1) Pressure will be necessary for any future agreement, 2) No agreement is forthcoming until at least November 2020, and 3) The less leverage the US has going into negotiations, the less it will be able to shape a future agreement. All that said, both candidates would be well-advised to develop a “Plan B” for how to cope with the Iranian nuclear threat, so as to be prepared for the very real possibility Tehran refuses to return to the negotiating table.________________________________________Ari Heistein is a research fellow and chief of staff to the director at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS).Dr. Raz Zimmt is a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) specializing in Iran and a veteran Iran-watcher in the Israeli Defense Forces.
Source: Al Arabiya
Full Article: A new Iran nuclear deal? Not so fast

Conciliatory messages coming out of Ankara recently may appear as an effort to moderate Turkish foreign policy vis-a-vis the United States, Europe and Israel, but they are likely to be just maneuvering to weather the many stalemates in Turkey's foreign ties.
Source: Al Monitor
Full Article: Is Turkey on moderation path in its foreign policy?

Saudi Arabia has reported 2,442 new coronavirus cases, bringing the total to 70,161, according to a Ministry of Health on Saturday.The increase is lower than the previous two days, in which 2,532 and 2,642 new cases were registered.Regionally, the largest number of cases was reported in the capital Riyadh, where there were 794 new cases. The region with the second-highest number was Mecca, with 466, followed by Jeddah where there were 444 cases. The figures show a jump in daily cases in Mecca, which had only reported 289 new cases on Friday.For more coronavirus news, visit our dedicated page.Sixty-five percent of the new cases were non-Saudi nationals. Just over one in five were women, with mean making up the remaining 79 percent.The rise in cases continues as Saudi Arabia prepares to celebrate Eid al-Fitr.The Kingdom has imposed a 24-hour lockdown during Eid, with a ban on gatherings of more than five people or gatherings with more than one family who do not live in the same household.The Ministry of Health urged all citizens and residents to follow precautionary measures during the holiday to help prevent the virus from spreading.Read more:Coronavirus: Iraqi officials visit Saudi Arabia in masks, highlighting COVID-19 normsEid al-Fitr to begin on Sunday in Saudi ArabiaCoronavirus: All you need to know about Saudi Arabia’s 24-hour Eid al-Fitr lockdown Developing.
Source: Al Arabiya
Full Article: Coronavirus: Saudi Arabia reports 2,442 new cases, total 70,161